Probabilistic modeling, through Monte Carlo simulations, offers significant advantages over deterministic modeling when estimating time and cost frames for drilling and well projects. 

Unlike deterministic modeling, which relies on fixed inputs to generate a single output without considering uncertainties, probabilistic modeling takes uncertainties and risks into account, leading to more realistic decisions.

Monte Carlo simulations, chosen for their ability to handle complex systems with multiple variables and dependencies, use parallel computations to reduce simulation time. 

Here's how Monte Carlo simulations work:

• Events are defined with input variables, and the proper probabilistic distribution is chosen for each variable.
• Random samples are generated for each event, typically through thousands of simulation iterations.
• The model evaluates each set of samples and produces an output for each iteration.
• The outputs are summed up, providing expected time or cost estimates based on the specified probabilities.
• These estimates can then be compared against real-world data, allowing for adjustments and refinements in future simulations.

 

Ultimately, setting probabilities in Monte Carlo simulations relies on both knowledge and intuition, as it accounts for cumulative uncertainties inherent in real-world scenarios. This approach ensures that project planners can make informed decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks and outcomes.

Drilling engineering software facilitates Monte Carlo simulation for drill time and cost estimation

The iQx PLANS drilling time and cost planning application employs Monte Carlo simulation techniques, enriching comprehension of the relationship between well costs and associated risks. 

Advanced PLANS Statistical Model outputs handle complexities like distributions, correlations, and uncertainties. This means more realistic estimations improving drilling budgets.

 

 

 

Monte Carlo PLANS simulation runs thousands or millions of iterations, revealing the probabilities of different outcomes.

iQx PLANS provides powerful visualization capabilities to transform your estimation data into meaningful charts, graphs, and reports.

Seamless collaboration features enable multiple team members to work simultaneously on estimation projects.

PLANS integrates seamlessly with other tools and systems through open API.

PLANS plays a pivotal role in guiding decision-making processes concerning strategic well-budgeting initiatives at a high level. Monte Carlo simulations provide insight to grow confidence in decision making.

 

Reach out to our Sales team for a demo of how Monte Carlo simulations work in PLANS.